Paying off your House... the Best Way to LOSE Money!

Return on Equity — perhaps the most important real estate metric you should be considering.


 Sometimes I drive my wife nuts.

 

I take too long to explain things...


I open the fridge and freezer doors at the same time...


Or I use this phrase: “it’s just a math problem.”


Whenever my wife and I talk about money or investing, I always just shrug and say, “it’s just a math problem”… because it always is: inputs, outputs, variables, solver functions, risk profiles, etc.


It’s just math, and math is why I will never pay off a house.



Don’t pay off your house? You’re crazy!


Maybe, but let’s do some math. Particularly, let’s talk about Return on Equity.


In real estate, and particularly real estate investing, there are tons of metrics that people look at: Cap Rate , Cash on Cash Return , IRR, etc. We’re going to focus on Return on Equity, which, as you might have guessed from my last post , is my go-to.


Defining Return on Equity is quite easy (much easier than the others). It’s… drumroll… the return on all your equity ( wow ). I’ll illustrate it with a bank account example.


You put $1,000 in a bank account. That is your equity investment, or maybe we could even call it a down payment (hmmm…).


The account pays 1% annually. So, at the end of year one you now have $1,010 (yes, I know there are other factors here too, we are keeping it simple). You had to tie up $1,000 worth of equity to make $10 and thus had a 1% return on equity. This repeats year after year with the total equity commitment increasing each year ($1,000… $1,010… $1020.10… etc).


Do not confuse this with Cash on Cash return, which only compares against the initial equity investment, not the current available equity (more on this in our next post).


The nice thing about a bank account is the Return on Equity rate is basically fixed regardless of how much equity you have. However, in real estate, it’s not fixed at all, and this is where people get in trouble.



Let’s look at Return on Equity in real estate now.


First, there are a few variations of the formula. Here is the one I like:


 Return on Equity (ROE)= Total Annual Increase / Total Equity

 


We will start with the easiest of the two: total equity. Total equity is the current value of the home minus any debt owed (your outstanding loan or mortgage balance(s)). If you want to see your ROE for the past year, we recommend using your total equity from the start of the period instead of the end of the period (because your equity is always changing!). However, either works, just be consistent.


So, if the home is worth $400,000 and you owe the bank $300,000, you have $100,000 in equity.


What is “total annual increase?” It is the increase in value that you captured that year from the property. Some of that value will be in your hand, like the cash flow you are ideally getting each month. The remainder of that value will be from the increase in your equity balance. This comes from property appreciation as well as principal pay-down (this is why your equity is always changing!), which increase (or decrease) your total equity.


So, we could rewrite the formula:


 Return on Equity (ROE) = (Annual Cash Flow + Annual Equity Increase ) / Total Equity

 


Or, to get super technical by defining each of the variables in the equation:


 Return on Equity = ( (Total Annual Income — Total Annual Expenses) + ((Current Home Value — Current Loan Balance) — (Previous Year Home Value — Previous Year Loan Balance))) / (Previous Year Home Value — Previous Year Loan Balance).

 


Let’s look at Return on Equity in action.


Let’s say you bought that $400,000 house we just mentioned above, but in cash. No loan. So you have the full $400,000 in equity.


You rent out the house each month for $2,000. You don’t have a mortgage payment, but you still have to pay property taxes, insurance, etc, which, let’s say, is $250/m, so your cash flow is $1,750 monthly or $21,000 annually. For simplicity, let’s assume there is no appreciation during the year.


You then divide your $21,000 increase by your $400,000 in equity to get your ROE of 5.25%.


In other words, you had to tie up $400,000 to make $21,000 — a 5.25% return. Not bad. It is definitely better than 1% from the bank account.



But wait, that example assumes the house is paid off. The article title said DON’T pay off the house.


Here’s why I don’t pay off my houses.

Instead of spending $400,000 and buying the house from the above example in cash, let’s pretend you put down 20% or $80,000 at 3.5% for 30 years.

Your denominator — total equity — will be $80,000. As mentioned previously, it depends what period we are looking at — for this example we will start with the first period, so our total equity actually equals our down payment.

For the numerator, we need to identify the increase in cash and equity we obtained by the end of the period.

For cashflow, we previously had $1,750 per month (our rent minus taxes and insurance). Now, we also need to subtract the mortgage payments, which in this situation is about $1,437. Leaving a cash flow of $313 monthly or $3,756 annually.

For equity increase, we need to compare our total equity at the start and end of the period under consideration. After about a year, due to paying down principal, your loan balance will be $313,900, so your ending total equity will be $86,100 (again, let’s assume no appreciation). So our equity increase is the ending total ($86,100) minus the starting total ($80,000), equalling $6,100.

So, we add the annual cash flow and equity increase together to get a numerator of $9,856.

“Wait a second, $9,856 is way less than $21,000. I don’t want that.”

Remember, it cost us $400,000 to make that $21,000. Right now it’s only costing us $80,000 to make $9,856. What’s the equity return in the second scenario? 12.32% — more than double the previous “no mortgage” scenario.


But your return doesn’t stop there.

Recall, you had $400,000 in cash to invest. That’s how you did the “no mortgage” scenario. However, if you decide to do mortgages at 20% or $80,000 down instead, you have enough cash to do that FIVE times.

So, if we take the $9,856 from scenario two and multiple that by five, we get $49,280 in annual increase instead of the measly $21,000 from the first example.


But wait, there’s even more return…

What if the property values happened to appreciate, let’s say, three percent, or $12,000?

In both scenarios, you get that $12,000 in new equity. However, in the second scenario, it only cost you your initial $80,000 down to make that same $12,000, not the full $400,000. Even cooler, if you spread the $400,000 across five properties as discussed, you aren’t just making that additional $12,000 once, but five times for an extra $60,000 in value.

So, in the “no mortgage” scenario (scenario 1), spending $400,000 gets you an additional $21,000 + $12,000 annually, or $33,000 giving you an ROE for the year of 8.25%.

In the “mortgage” scenario (scenario two), spending $400,000 across five properties annually gets you an additional $49,280 (original cash flow + non-appreciation equity increase) + $60,000 equalling $109,280 giving you an ROE for the year of 27.32%.


In this scenario with $400,000 to invest, that difference between 27.32% and 8.25% equates to an extra $76,280 for the year.

This is the power of considering Return on Equity.


One last very important note…

Unless your market’s growth rate is increasing month after month, your ROE actually goes DOWN every month. That’s because as you pay off more of your loan, you have more equity getting tied up in the investment. In other words, it is costing you more money to make money, and the money you are making stays relatively flat (unless you are increasing rent every month).

Or, perhaps you had a killer few years when it comes to appreciation, which handed you amazing ROEs. All of a sudden appreciation stops. You now have a TON of equity built up in your property, but maybe rent hasn’t caught up yet. Your ROE will have a huge drop.

That’s the additional power of tracking Return on Equity. It helps you to know how your properties are doing right now, regardless of how great your initial cash investment is doing. So even though your overall Cash on Cash Return seems to be doing great, properly tracking ROE helps you know when it’s time to do something different with your property, whether that means to sell, refinance, do a home equity loan, etc (more on this in an upcoming article about using ROE and Cash on Cash together).


You need to regularly be tracking your ROE.

I’m biased, but IMHO WayBoz is the easiest way to track and act on ROE — it’s the whole premise of the tool. You’ll see your ROE at any moment, be notified when it drops below certain thresholds, and even prompted on ways to better leverage equity that you have. There’s a bunch of other bells and whistles, but it is arguably the best tool out there to help you keep track of how your real estate investments are actually performing.

Comment below with your thoughts. I’m sure some Cap Rate and Cash on Cash fans have something to say. :)

Don’t forget to check back to see our future articles on Cash on Cash Return, Cap Rate, Using Cash on Cash with ROE, and more!
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